Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.269347 4.672729 5.122351 5.665910 6.312546 7.066905 8.028518
2025-01-19 3.606681 4.098304 4.683533 5.447170 6.442622 7.736386 9.621528
2025-01-26 3.338402 3.897703 4.596741 5.564867 6.926319 8.875085 12.114694
2025-02-02 3.196155 3.817909 4.628268 5.812186 7.600967 10.424864 15.868087
2025-02-09 3.052449 3.712016 4.600798 5.957796 8.139350 11.909714 20.373356
2025-02-16 2.868250 3.530255 4.442833 5.879885 8.296922 12.776088 24.224030
2025-02-23 2.720059 3.383332 4.316226 5.826856 8.476891 13.734492 29.184501
2025-03-02 2.588398 3.248272 4.192370 5.758535 8.610915 14.641424 35.103387
2025-03-09 2.473814 3.128825 4.080265 5.693378 8.734867 15.572421 42.644995
2025-03-16 2.384506 3.039556 4.005697 5.680722 8.956047 16.833162 54.612095
2025-03-23 2.330529 2.998049 4.000462 5.785551 9.436491 19.023292 80.890099
2025-03-30 2.236588 2.891225 3.883807 5.677291 9.438274 19.834151 102.424040
2025-04-06 2.142157 2.780724 3.757004 5.543487 9.373514 20.469090 130.502905
2025-04-13 2.038725 2.652165 3.594065 5.329048 9.092308 20.275021 147.401833
2025-04-20 2.006641 2.630921 3.604612 5.442358 9.607329 23.283036 343.271141
2025-04-27 1.998841 2.646211 3.675888 5.680560 10.494873 28.741382 28514.778386
2025-05-04 1.973719 2.632643 3.696865 5.820687 11.171524 34.281148 NaN
2025-05-11 1.915565 2.563745 3.617910 5.745720 11.228994 36.524742 NaN
2025-05-18 1.864944 2.504841 3.553139 5.694681 11.348772 39.447306 NaN
2025-05-25 1.815245 2.445470 3.484384 5.628906 11.412663 42.199592 NaN
2025-06-01 1.768937 2.389887 3.419569 5.566160 11.475832 45.204861 NaN
2025-06-08 1.732573 2.349170 3.379281 5.553970 11.702507 50.317437 NaN
2025-06-15 1.713906 2.336675 3.389104 5.654918 12.339088 61.973461 NaN